Rising Interest Rates And Commercial Real Estate: A Primer

There has been much talk recently about what the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2006 means for the U.S. economy as a whole. Here we take a look at the impact of rate hikes (current and future) on commercial real estate, examining first the prospective disadvantages and then the potential benefits.

Figuring this out isn’t straightforward, as interest rate changes have multiple impacts on commercial real estate (CRE). Further, the very causes of the Fed decision to raise interest rates may signal that other economic factors are at play, and these, too, may impact CRE.

Further complicating things, the timing of the rate hike coincides with the “maturity

wall” of commercial mortgage-backed securities that need to be refinanced within the next two years. The maturity wall means there will be many borrowers who need refinancing in any case because their loans are maturing, while the rate hike could prompt those borrowers to seek out refinancing sooner rather than later.

It is worth noting that since the recent rate hike is small and the rate remains low – the quarter-point increase raises the target range to 0.25%-0.5% – the current hike may not have a massive effect on its own, but subsequent hikes are predicted for next year.